I'm writing this early Wednesday morning, all keyed up from the election.

You see, I haven't voted for a Republican or a Democrat for twelve years.  I forgot what it feels like to vote for someone who has a chance of winning, especially when it's close.

Right now it's extremely close, not looking great for Kerry overall.  However, there were a lot of provisional ballots in quite a few states--and if a lot of those were from Republicans challenging peoples' votes, one expects they will lean heavily towards Kerry.  So I don't think it's over yet, even if the regular polls show Bush ahead in the last couple of available states.

No matter who wins, when we have a decision I'll be doing an entry on what to expect economically and so forth.

In the meantime, what does a close election mean?  Well, it'll depend:

Close but not contested:  if the vote stays super-close but no major snafus or voter suppression, etc. are found, then the stock market will be shaky until there's a winner, but probably won't crater.  If it does, it is likely temporary until a winner is declared.

Contested:  if tons of litigation are going to come out of the election, the stock market won't take that well at all.  You can expect it'll go down, and it'll stay shaky or worse until a winner is declared AND all major litigation issues are settled in the minds of the market.  It may or may not recover at that point.  Actually, it probably will, but it'll depend on the situation.

Though it's too early to know for sure, it seems like so far it's in the "close but not contested" category.  As much as I would loathe a Bush win, if it's uncontested I think I'd prefer that over lots of litigation and the additional acrimony that would ensue.  I do think that Kerry should fight it until the end--no Gore caving this time, if you please.  Not with Bush on the other end.