Email notification to Brandon Starr's blog has been shown to reduce bad cholesterol in two-toed sloths, and has been used as an effective exfoliant.
Monday, April 19, 2004
Bush bemoans Spanish pullout from Iraq
Bush: will give "false comfort to terrorists"
That is, of course, pure spin. There's nothing false about the comfort Spain gave the terrorists by their abrupt pullout. It's pure, unadulterated, Sealy Posturepedic comfort, with pillow top.
But it's worse. The Socialist election win, coupled with the high-profile promises to get out of Iraq, guaranteed they'd have to pull out. But it didn't guarantee they'd have to pull out so quickly. How quickly? Bush and company have been left begging for at least a little delay to avoid gaps in security.
Pretty pathetic on Spain's part. And dangerous to the soldiers who remain. Thanks, "partner."
Things aren't looking good, folks. If there are any Iraqis, beyond the lap dogs in the Governing Council, who truly desire peace and democracy, they're going to have to stand up and be counted soon. The window of opportunity is rapidly approaching closure.
Only the terrorists, the thugs, and the fanatics are voicing their opinions, with protests and with guns. If it is possible for a budding Gandhi, Mandela, or Washington to lead the Iraqis towards democracy, the time to begin is now. It's true, there isn't much recent history of freedom and democracy in Iraq--but there is a long history of relative secularism and education. And there wasn't much democracy in India, South Africa, or the States before those three great leaders came along.
Freedom must be earned. Only part of the cost can be borne by outsiders. A large part must be paid by those who desire it--desire it so deeply that they will risk the wrath of the jihadists, the Saddam sympathizers, and the wanna-be totalitarians. It only takes a small part of the population to be willing to pay the price.
Will Iraqis pony up?
Woodward: Bush diverted funds bound for Afghanistan to plan Iraq war
If so, this is likely an illegal act. Just ask Nixon or Reagan about the troubles illegally diverted funds can cause. Oh, wait, you can't. One's dead and the other is not-quite-dead.
Woodward has some other interesting things to say, too, like that the Saudi ambassador was kept in the Iraq-war loop more than Secretary of State Colin Powell.
If true, IF true, this is certainly giving us a better chance than we had as a nation with the Nixon administration. The bulk of the Watergate problems and evidence came out after the re-election campaign. Here, we have a chance to see information before November.
Keep reading and thinking, folks. This one's not over by a long stretch. But most importantly, keep your mind open until more is known.
Sunday, April 18, 2004
William Hung debuts first music video--"She Bangs"
If you can't get the MSN video to work, well, I can't either. But more importantly,
Really, I watch American Idol
. Heck, my favorite part of the show is the first few episodes where all the self-deluded folks line up like skeet to Simon Cowell's shotgun wit.
It was even funny when Hung got a little mileage out of his appearance, going on a few shows and singing at a few places.
It was a little less funny when it was announced he was going to release an album.
Now, it's pathetic. I mean, come on. Energy and an upbeat attitude? Not enough. He's not a member of "Up With People," he's trying to be some sort of bizarro-world solo artist.
To borrow from Popeye, "Enough is enough, and enough is too much!"
Saturday, April 17, 2004
Christian teens: only 10% say stealing Christian music is morally wrong; pirate music at same rate as non-Christians
So, what have we learned?
1) Christianity is irrational, and it leads to irrational behavior. It's not immoral if you can justify theft to yourself. "Everyone's doing it." "It's readily available." "It's another way to spread the Gospel."
2) Christianity, despite a widespread belief that it is the end-all and be-all of societal cures, has no effect on actions taken in this case.
3) Christianity is not about doing good deeds It's about lip-service. You can be forgiven of anything if you just repent.* "Good" thoughts trump bad actions in the mind of the irrational, even though actions can harm others, while thoughts cannot.
* So if Hitler repented instead of committing suicide, he would have "gone to Heaven." It's ideas like that that make a rational person shake their head.
Friday, April 16, 2004
Late to the party in Queens
I've only recently discovered "The King of Queens"
For those who haven't seen it, it's stand-up comedian* Kevin James's sitcom. Take one part "The Honeymooners," one part "All In the Family," and one part "Fawlty Towers," mix well, and serve with cocktail weenies.
I love the sort of crapola that some P.R. person had to write for the official web site--check out the link above. My favorite:
Set in the working-class suburb of Queens, New York, the show follows Doug Heffernan (Kevin James), an amiable delivery man, and his wife, spitfire legal secretary Carrie Heffernan (Leah Remini), as they explore the everyday challenges of love, life, family and marriage. (end quote)
Man, is that ever horrible to read. Boring, cliche, uninformative drivel. I'll bet not one new viewer has ever come to the show by reading that page.
Anyway, it's not going to replace "Friends" or "Monty Python's Flying Circus" in my heart any time soon, but here's the deal. The writing is solid, the acting is good, and the situations are funny. Anyway, here's how I see the connections to the abovementioned classic sitcoms:
"The Honeymooners"--this one's so obvious it's even mentioned in the drivel page I linked to. Working-class man, his wife, a couple of buddies, some physical humor, and very very formulaic plot-driven comedy. Seriously, the formulas are really down to the last dot on the last "i." But you know what? Formulas become formulas for a reason: they work. Sure, I can see the next plot twist coming quite a bit of the time, but it doesn't really spoil the ride.
"All In the Family"--like that show, there's an aging family head with a loud mouth and a lot of offbeat ideas, who stubbornly sticks to them. Unlike that show, he's not the main character, nor is there a social-commentary aspect to it. I must say, Jerry Stiller, who plays "Queen's" patriarch, is more grating than funny a lot of the time. He makes a lot of strange acting choices as to pauses and gestures which I think are supposed to seem funnier than they end up being. He is definitely the weak link in the show--but, because he was on "Seinfeld," he'll never be kicked off. Also like "All In the Family," a lot of comedy takes place during arguments.
"Fawlty Towers"--probably the best short-run sitcom ever, the John Cleese classic has quite a few similarities to this sitcom. The main character is a married man who screws up a lot, and his wife has to get things back under control. Because she's the governing factor in the household, she often seems shrewish or just plain bitchy, but also has a lot of funny scenes because of it. Other people on the show--coworkers, friends, neighbors--are only lightly fleshed out as characters, and are the objects of the main character's crazy schemes, mistakes, and general screw-ups. One is tempted to say that Kevin James's Doug character is like a male Lucy Ricardo, and maybe that's what they're going for. But he's really a lot like Basil Fawlty--completely flawed, unable to admit a mistake, and with a serious amoral streak that gets him in a lot of trouble. Parallels could also be drawn to Homer Simpson or Al Bundy, but I'll take any chance to mention "Fawlty Towers."
Anyway, this is a lot of writing for what is really a lightweight entertainment. Enjoyable, solid, formulaic, light. That's "The King of Queens."
*Kevin James was a good standup. I don't know why I never checked out his sitcom, as I liked his act. Having said that, there seems to be only three ways to get on a sitcom nowadays, and "The King of Queens" features all three:
1) Be a standup comedian (Kevin James)
2) Be attractive (Leah Ramini)
3) Have a long history in the business (Jerry Stiller).
What about talent? Yeah, I guess there's a place for that. But it's not enough to get you on a show, it seems. When's the last ugly guy or gal who was cast without having been a standup or having solid previous comedy work? The closest I could come was both Michael Richards and Jason Alexander on "Seinfeld." And you know what? The acting talent was a huge part of the success of that show. (Julia Louis-Dreyfus was both attractive and on "Saturday Night Live.") So, it's a shame that more risks aren't taken with casting on sitcoms.
Thursday, April 15, 2004
French to pay for British dentistry
British local councillor to organize group to go to France for tooth-fillings
There are a few really sad things about this:
1) It's basically competing noncompetitiveness. Both Britain and France have socialized medicine. Real competition, with no government interference, would ensure an adequate supply of dentists and keep prices low by competition--and would provide competitive pressure for dentists to keep up on their skills and technology, too.
2) Even given that both Britain and France will continue to have socialized medicine, now French taxpayers will be helping subsidize these British citizens' teeth.
3) A couple of months ago I linked to a report showing that in some areas of Britain, there were lines around the block for those few dentists left who would take low-paying government-subsidized patients. This is just more evidence that their system isn't working.
4) Buckle, the politician, says "treatment appears to be cheaper in France because there is greater competition for trade between dentists and they receive much larger government subsidies." I doubt the competition is really any greater, but I have no doubt that larger government subsidies--which is simply taking from all to give to some--would be a reason for dentists to at least provide service. But it doesn't give any incentive to improve their practices or keep their technology up.
5) Because the politician calls the trip to France the "Tooth Ferry," the story gets a hook and is written up. Where? In the "Offbeat" section. Great. The media finally prints some evidence about how horrible socialism is, and it only gets written up by accident, and then ghettoized to the "yuk-yuk" section of the news.
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
People mistaking "The Onion" for real news source
If you haven't seen The Onion
before, it's a hilarious deadpan fake-news web site and more.
It's pure satire. It often makes you think about an issue while you laugh at the fake-news version.
But, of course, there are those who take the stories as true. Some are lazy. Most are irrationalists* who can't tell truth from fiction any more. Read the story. Especially on page 2, you'll see what I mean.
Check it out. Oh, and check out The Onion
Satire: it's like a scrub-brush for your brain. And it'll help you keep your brain clean and sparkly, unless you've let it rust completely through.
* Read: religious people.
Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Ill will press
: home of the swearing squirrel.
If you don't mind swearing in your cartoons, this is hilarious. I haven't yet seen them all, but so far, "Fat-kins diet" and "small, medium, large" are funny stuff.
Oh, though it's not in the two I mentioned, some have violence, too. So, don't watch if you don't like violence, either--except the two above, which are fine. They just have the f*ck-talking cartoon squirrel.*
*The squirrel is named "Foamy." Though "small, medium, large" was an early episode, the name seems to predate it. I don't know where it comes from.
An interesting article theorizing about the silver market
You'll likely need some background before reading the article.
But first, full disclosure: I have a long position in silver, specifically silver miner SSRI.
Here's the background on silver. It is indeed a precious metal. But it's also an industrial metal. The famous one is the silver used in Kodak-style film, but it's being increasingly used in other areas.
Here's the rub. For a few years now, the supply being pulled out of the ground is LESS THAN the amount being used by industry.
Now, basic economics tells you: supply low, demand high, prices go up. Right?
Prices go up UNLESS they are being pulled down by other forces. Here's the deal:
Silver is a pretty small market. Peanuts compared to U.S. government Treasury bonds, or the stock market. Small enough that a couple of rich Texans, the Hunt brothers, nearly cornered the market in the early 1980s, causing silver to shoot from about $5 to about $50 in a few months before crashing right back down.
This market is small enough that COMEX, the place to go if you're a big investor looking to place a pretty-big multimillion-dollar bet on the direction of silver prices, could be moveable.
COMEX holds silver, and silver bullion and futures are based on COMEX prices. But where it gets ugly is that COMEX can lease its silver out. Someone leases it out, pays interest, and puts it back. Now, one way to profit would be to lease it out at one price, sell it on the open market (then pay the lease interest), wait for the price to come down, buy the silver on the open market, and return the silver to COMEX, closing out the lease. It's like short-selling a stock.
The differences are three: one, the lease interest on silver is extremely low--often less than 1% annually. And the margin requirements historically have been a lot softer than for stocks, meaning little money down for lots of leverage. Plus, as far as I can determine there is no "up-tick" rule like the one for stocks which keeps short-sellers from running a stock down again and again and again until the market gives up.
What this means is that the silver consumers--the silver-using industry--both has a motive and a means to keep silver prices low. Whenever the price of silver rises, just borrow a bunch, sell it on the open market until the price is driven down, then when the smoke clears, buy it back. Not only will it keep the commodity you need for your business cheap, you can profit by it too.
Well, it's worked. Despite years of demand outpacing supply, and the amounts of above-ground silver becoming increasingly low, the price of silver hasn't gone up in ten years above $6, with the exception of one short spurt that didn't make it to $7 in 1998
. (Go down the page to the bottom-right chart for the long-term perspective on prices.)*
Until recently, that is.
Silver popped above $6, $7, and $8. In three months--a quick move. Just the last couple of days, however, despite no real news, silver has been taking it on the chin. It's down from $8.15 to $7.35. In other words, it gave up one-third of the three-month move in two days. Again, on no news.
Do you smell the leasers leasing, big-time, desperately trying to get silver back down? I do. If you click on the first link above, you'll see some charts. Go to the bottom one.
It shows the net amount short-versus-long for the industries who use silver. Unlike the other industries (in the charts above the silver chart), the silver industry is ALWAYS short silver, trying to keep the price down. And when the price goes up, shorting spikes BIG TIME. The 17-to-1 short-to-long spike was in 1998 to get the price back down below $6, and the recent shorting has already been trying to drop the price of silver. The recent shorting hasn't reached the 17-to-1 heights, but already is a wider spike than that 1998 pop.
Maybe it'll work again. Maybe my silver stock will suffer. But I tell you what: at some point, there will be so little silver above ground that all the shorting in the world won't keep the price down. The pressure on price will build up, and unless some unseen source of new silver is found, or industrial uses decline, prices will have to go to the upside. Big time.
Again, this is just the opinion of one who's already positioned himself to benefit if and when prices do go up. And the lease shorting could conceivably keep prices down for a long time.** But not, I think, forever.
*If you've read this far, you now have enough background to read the first linked article. One detail: "the jig is up" is tangentially referring to the idea that silver shorting no longer works, and prices will continue to the upside, possibly even to the point of forcing a "short squeeze"--forced buying-back of silver to close out increasingly painful short positions.
**The article mentions that COMEX recently raised margin requirements on silver leasing again, which says that at least there is some concern on the part of the market-makers that the leasing is amounting to pure manipulation.
Monday, April 12, 2004
My cousin, back from Iraq--and how it changed me
I spoke with my cousin a few days ago. He's just back from Iraq. He was stationed in Saddam's hometown of Tikrit
I guess he was lucky in a way. He got out just before things started really going nutty in Iraq again.
But it's a lot worse there than the media has been letting on. This is yet another reason my mind has been changing about Iraq, and it's time I wrote about it.
My cousin (I won't give his name here, because he says he may have to go back in six months for another six-month hitch--after being there more than a year) drove trucks.
Trucks so big they are designed to carry an M1 tank. Or an 80-ton halftrack. Or two hummers. Enclosed. It has forty tires. It weighs 80 tons--just the tractor. Tractor, trailer, and cargo can add up to 200 tons. If you are sitting in the driver's seat, you look down on the roofs of 18-wheeler trucks. Trucks which stopped like a train, needing hundreds of yards of safety distance between itself and the next truck in the convoy.
Like I said, big trucks.
Anyway, things aren't so nice and neat as the media lets on. The camp he was in was mortared regularly. Sometimes, they'd get intelligence that an attack was coming. This just meant less sleep than usual.
The heat in the cab of the trucks is intense. He saw it get to more than 150 degrees Fahrenheit. When it's that hot, you sip water all the time. 150 degree water, you sip like tea. One time, he made the mistake of pouring his water over his head--it gave him first-degree burns. But they don't often open the windows. Why?
At first, the Iraqis thought the big trucks were bulletproof. Then they found out they weren't. That's when they started attacking the trucks big-time. And that's why he didn't keep the window down. In fact, if a tire blew, he never stopped to fix it. He just kept a count in his head, starting with forty and working down. He could easily go four, five, or more blowouts and not stop.
If a stop had to happen--and the trucks are notoriously hard-to-maintain, especially in Iraq--the whole convoy of trucks would stop, and everyone would get out to do security. You hoped.
Trouble is, they don't do truck driving like a long-haul trucker in the U.S. The sleep rules rigorously enforced on private citizens is ignored by an army in combat. He'd often go eight hours, nap two or four, then do another eight hours. Over twenty-four hours, he'd often do twenty hours driving. There are two guys in the cab, but the rider has to keep a lookout on the passenger side--they don't dare fall asleep, in case of attack. So when a convoy stopped, you hoped everyone was alert enough to stay awake. It often didn't happen, especially out of the city. Even my cousin, who was a leader of his group, sometimes couldn't stay awake when stopped. Once the convoy left without him. He woke up all alone.
That is bad. He got the truck moving, and just hooked up with the next convoy he could find. Better safe than alone, even if you don't end up where you're supposed to be.
The insurgents would try to stop the trucks--the truck's best defense was its immense momentum. When stopped, they became more vulnerable. As the year ground on, and things became more tense, they would stop under fewer and fewer situtations.
At first, the idea was to keep your face among the Iraqis. So folks were allowed to come close when the trucks were stopped. Then some attacks came. So kids only were allowed near the trucks. They'd give them the candy from their MREs. Then some kids--"really little kids" as he put it--were putting magnetic bombs under their trucks. So, no one was allowed close. The soldiers were now separate from the Iraqi citizens.
My cousin was given a slingshot. The candy once given to the kids became a very effective deterrent. When someone came too close, but he didn't feel it was time to lock a round in the chamber of his rifle, he'd fire a hard candy from the surgical-rubber sling.
Once someone stepped up and reached through the triangular window by my cousin's feet. He didn't know what the guy was after, but he was in danger. He kicked the guy's arm with his steel-toed boots so hard he heard a snap, and the guy yanked his arm out.
Sometimes a car or truck would try to force him off the road. My cousin would have to make a decision--and he always decided for the safety of himself and his unit. He sideswiped many cars into ditches after they tried something funny. Similarly, he didn't stop in a town for something as prosaic as a red light. He hit the horn a bunch of times, looked around as best he could, but mostly, he just kept right on through the intersection.
It seems a fair metaphor for the entirety of Bush policy in Iraq. Don't stop, don't follow the usual traffic laws, just keep going, and hope everything will end up okay.
I hope this helps you understand part of why my views on Iraq have been so much in flux lately. Of course I still love and support the brave soldiers of my beloved country. Of course I will support my cousin however I can if he indeed has to go back into the chaos of Tikrit, or anywhere else. But things aren't as cozy as the media has made it seem. Remember, all this is from before the recent insurrection in the three cities. This is all just business-as-usual stuff going on on a constant basis. Constant danger. Constant strain. Constant attacks. From a minority of the populace? Possibly. Even probably. But the soldiers are now separated from the citizens, and I don't see how you can grow friendly with someone with guns with whom you never talk. And I fail to see how Bush is going to get us out of this mess.
I need to stop writing now. I can't see the screen.